Genocide of Ukrainians: Distortion of Demographic Structures

Genocide of Ukrainians: Distortion of Demographic Structures

Roman Tesliuk,

PhD in Geography, 

senior researcher

National Museum of the Holodomor-Genocide

At the onset of the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine faced a significant demographic crisis. The country experienced a rapid population decline caused by several factors: an extremely low birth rate, rising mortality rates, high levels of external migration, and forced internal displacement.

Against the backdrop of such trends, Russian aggression has evolved into an exceptionally powerful factor in the sharp aggravation of the demographic situation in Ukraine. Millions of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), tens of thousands of dead civilians and military personnel, the destruction of cities, the occupation of Ukrainian territories, physical and mental abuse of Ukrainians under occupation, constant missile attacks, the destruction of civilian infrastructure – these and other consequences of Russia’s genocide against Ukrainians make us talk about the real risks of a demographic disaster, another one caused by the Kremlin’s criminal policy.

A demographic disaster is a sharp decrease in the population of a country or a specific ethnic group due to a significant increase in mortality against a background of low birth rates. Such catastrophes often have an “artificial” origin and are directly related to totalitarian regimes. In the 20th century, Ukraine experienced three demographic disasters caused by the aggression of totalitarian regimes: in 1914-1923 – World War I, the destruction of Ukrainian statehood with the subsequent violent establishment of a totalitarian communist regime in 1919-1921 and a mass man-made famine in 1921-1923; in 1932-1933 – the Holodomor-genocide; in 1939-1947 – World War II, mass deportations and a mass man-made famine in 1946-1947. All of them led to millions of destroyed human lives in Ukraine: dead, imprisoned, missing, forcibly displaced outside the borders of the “republic”, etc.

However, no less important signs of a demographic catastrophe are the distortion of the demographic and social and economic structures of the population.

As a result of the first disaster, there was a significant distortion of the sex structure of the population – both due to the First World War and Russian-Ukrainian wars and national liberation struggles. Furthermore, in 1919-1920, the increase in mortality occurred not only among men but among women as well, which gave grounds for the then statisticians from the Central Statistical Office of the Ukrainian SSR to conclude that “deviations from the normal state of affairs during the civil war are even greater, and above all, more significant, than during the imperialist war” [1].

The catastrophe of the Holodomor genocide of 1932-1933, in addition to millions of human losses, distorted the social and economic structure of the Ukrainian village for many decades, turning the peasant-owner into a serf collective farmer. In addition to direct demographic losses, the age pyramids of the population in subsequent years reflect numerous indirect losses – the potential number of unborn in the late 1920s – the first half of the 1930s as a result of forced collectivization and the Holodomor amounted to from 215 thousand in 1929 to 998 thousand in 1933. [2].

The demographic catastrophe of World War II also left a deep mark on the sex-age structure of the population of Ukraine, worsened by repressions and deportations. Its main demographic consequences are a reduction in the population of the Ukrainian SSR by a third and the loss of its most capable part, especially the male sex. Due to this catastrophe, the possibilities for normal population reproduction were significantly limited for a long post-war period.

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has begun a new countdown of Ukraine’s demographic development. The demographic dimension of the current genocide of Ukrainians has quantitative and qualitative aspects.

In quantitative terms, for almost a year of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukraine’s demographic losses amount to tens of thousands of dead Ukrainians (civilian and military casualties) and several million forcibly displaced abroad. In addition, millions of residents had to resettle within Ukraine.

The UN-recorded data on 8,231 killed and 13,734 wounded Ukrainian civilians (as of March 14, 2023) [3] reflect only a tiny part of the losses as they relate to specific confirmed and documented cases of death. The National Police of Ukraine reported 16,502 deaths (as of January 3, 2023) [4]. There are separate expert estimates of losses in some cities. In particular, the mayor of Mariupol, V. Boychenko, reported at the end of May 2022 about at least 22 thousand dead civilians in the city [5]. Further estimates are based on unconfirmed data from the Illichivsk morgue (87 thousand dead) and the Novoazovsk prosecutor’s office (26,750 unidentified bodies) of Mariupol (as of mid-August 2022) [6]. It is also impossible to verify the information about 138 thousand people who died in this city for various reasons, including hunger and lack of medical care (as of mid-October 2022) [7]. There is also no reliable information regarding the number of deaths in other cities and villages occupied since February 24, 2022.

Military losses announced by official Ukrainian officials amount to 10–13 thousand people killed (as of December 1, 2022) [8]. If we take as a basis the information of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine about ten times lower losses of Ukrainian military compared to Russian ones, announced on January 13, 2023, by Minister O. Reznikov [9], then as of March 17, 2023, we can talk about 16.3 thousand dead Ukrainian military personnel. Other announced data on the losses of the Ukrainian army (for example, [10]) are unofficial and require verification. More complete information on the number of Ukrainian civilian and military casualties will be available after the end of all hostilities on the territory of Ukraine.

The full-scale war has caused an enormous wave of external and internal migration. According to UN estimates [11], during almost a year of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the UN, as of February 19, 2023, recorded 8.11 million refugees from Ukraine, of whom about 2.85 million left (deported) for Russia. One of the signs of genocide is the forced transfer of children from one group to another. According to a current study [12], this is about 260–700 thousand Ukrainian children (in the Russian Federation, the figure is 738 thousand [13]). 4.9 million Ukrainian refugees have registered in Europe for temporary protection or similar national protection schemes.

The number of IDPs in Ukraine, according to estimates by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), as of January 23, 2023, was 5.4 million people (the highest value was more than 8 million in early May 2022) [14].

The migration of women, children, and the elderly has significantly distorted the gender, age, and social structure of the population. IOM research [15] indicates that after the end of the war, most migrants will return to Ukraine – 12% of respondents planned to return home within the next 3 months, and another 65% planned to return without specifying certain periods. Only 5% of those surveyed had no plans or hopes to return. [16] However, such positive aspirations may change depending on the course of the war and the timing of its end. It can be stated that the percentage of returnees is inversely related to both the duration and intensity of Russian aggression. Conversely, it is directly related to the speed at which essential housing, social and economic infrastructure, and the country’s overall economy are restored.

No less severe and large-scale distortions caused by the current genocide have affected the qualitative demographic structures—reproductive, socio-economic, linguistic-national, psycho-mental, religious, and others. An analysis of the consequences of demographic catastrophes in Ukraine (more precisely, in the Ukrainian SSR) in the 20th century shows that the determining factor in stabilising new population structures after a disaster is the policy of the ruling government (regime). In other words, the formation and development of these new quality structures correspond to new political realities. The main manifestations of this can be the intensification of migration processes (for example, stimulating migration between the “republics” of the USSR in order to mix nations and create a “Soviet” person), the elimination of certain social strata and the privileged position of others, loyal and/or helpful to the authorities (regime).

The main consequences of the formation of reproductive demographic structures as a result of the current genocide are as follows:

the expected decline in birth rates due to the widespread involvement of the population of reproductive age in military units (mainly men) and forced migration abroad (mainly women) – asymmetry in the sex-age structure of the population, disruption of the natural regime of its reproduction;

disruption of family structure – an increase in the number of long-distance marriages, the risks of their breakdown, an increase in the number of single-parent families, the number of orphans and half-orphans;

deterioration of physical and mental health, physical quality of life, and reduction of its duration.

The most negative consequence of the distortion of the population’s socio-economic structures is the growth of unemployment due to the occupation of territories, the destruction of workplaces (about 5 million people lost their jobs [17]), and a significant deterioration in working conditions.

For separate population structures, the impact of the genocidal war does not have clearly expressed negative consequences. However, it has caused structural changes that have different effects on the employment of the population and, accordingly, affect their quality of life. In particular, the professional structure of the population is transforming – the demand for individual professions is growing, specifically in the military, technical, construction sector, etc. The importance of technical education for military needs, restoring infrastructure, providing humanitarian education to form sustainable regional communities, and countering Russian propaganda is increasing.

Changes in social stratification are manifested primarily in the increase in the number of military personnel and veterans, a significant increase in the number of IDPs and the aggravation of the problem of their integration into the new place of residence. In the socio-economic sense, the lower social strata have increased in numbers – the poverty level, according to World Bank estimates [18], has increased to 25% due to the war.

It is worth noting some positive aspects of developing some demographic structures. In particular, in the linguistic structure of the population – the genocidal actions of Russia accelerate the process of refusing to use the language of the aggressor [19] and the growth of the share of Ukrainian speakers, which contributes to the cohesion and unity of Ukrainian society. The linguistic and ethnic composition of the population in the deoccupied Ukrainian territories is changing and will continue to change as a result of the migration (escape) of Russian immigrant occupiers and Ukrainian collaborators.

The full-scale Russian invasion has enhanced changes in the religious composition of the population. More and more communities of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) (UOC-MP), which is not an independent church but has a church-canonical connection with the Russian Orthodox Church and is its structural unit [20], are transferring to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine. From March 2022 to February 2023, 654 parishes made such a transition, overall, as of January 31, 2023 – 10.6% of all parishes of the UOC-MP [21]. The probability and speed of the transition of UOC MP parishes to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in the future will depend on the position of state authorities, especially regarding the property rights of church parishes and the believers’ self-organisation in local communities.

The further demographic development of Ukraine directly depends on the military-political and socio-economic conditions. The condition for compensating for demographic losses due to the deaths of Ukrainian military and civilian citizens and forced emigration is expanded population reproduction, but it is objectively impossible neither now nor in the short or medium term. Therefore, the goal of demographic development in its quantitative dimension in the post-war period should be to reduce and gradually stabilise the rate of population decline, which requires the development and implementation of measures that will facilitate its simple reproduction. The risks of non-return of a significant part of migrants of fertile age and children significantly limit the possibilities of such reproduction.

The defeat of Ukraine would mean a new demographic catastrophe for us. As the Ukrainian international jurist, Doctor of Laws, Professor V. Vasylenko, rightly defined, the war with Russia is existential (a threat to the existence of Ukraine as a state and Ukrainians as a state nation) and multi-vector (in addition to the actual military front, there is also a humanitarian one with its components – linguistic and cultural, historical, information and propaganda, confessional) [22]. Therefore, successes at the front must be supported by an appropriate socio-demographic policy, which will include not only economic, social, and demographic components but also humanitarian ones.

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[8] У Зеленського назвали втрати української армії в війні проти рф. Слово і діло: аналітичний портал. 01.12.2022. URL: https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2022/12/01/novyna/polityka/zelenskoho-nazvaly-vtraty-ukrayinskoyi-armiyi-vijni-proty-rf
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Roman Tesliuk,
PhD in Geography,
senior researcher
National Museum of the Holodomor-Genocide